Bootstrapping New Usage with Shielded Prediction Markets on Namada

Ecosystem & Strategy Ideas & initiatives
1

Idea:
Use prediction markets; Simple, permissionless bets, to drive activity on Namada.
Think: “Will NAM be over $0.10 by August 1?” or “Will Proposal X pass?”

These markets:

  • Let users signal beliefs with capital

  • Create organic usage (speculation, hedging, signaling, fun)

  • Showcase Namada’s edge: private, on-chain bets — no public positions

Why it matters for Namada:

  • Brings in new users/builders

  • Drives both shielded and unshielded volume

  • Highlights privacy as a differentiator

How it works (today, no upgrade needed):

  • Two users agree on a bet

  • Funds go into a 2-of-3 multisig (Alice, Bob, Oracle)

  • Each pre-signs conditional transactions

  • Oracle signs the real outcome

  • Only the valid TX can be executed — winner takes all

Inspired by Bitcoin DLCs. Built on Namada’s existing tools: off-chain coordination + multisig + a signing oracle (e.g., TWAP from Osmosis or Neutron).

What I’m asking:

  • Does this sound interesting to you?

  • Would you use or help prototype something like this?

  • Any pitfalls or edge cases we’re missing?

Bonus: Could test with a Discord bot and soft incentives (“First 50 NAM bet is free”) to bootstrap usage.

Let me know if you’re in.
I’d love to hear feedback or team up on a simple proof of concept.

4 Likes
2

It feels very interesting

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3

Thanks for your idea! It also opens the possibility of creating a private OTC market :smiley:

I have a few concerns:

  • How can we keep the oracle completely unaware of the deals? When the oracle is part of the multisig, it learns the deal amount. Shielded transactions let us hide the participants by creating new wallets, but it would be even better if everything stayed fully private.

  • What about a refund mechanism? Even if the counterparty can sign a refund transaction, it should become valid only after a specific time or block height. The counterparty could sign the refund before the deal, but it would be nicer to make the process more permissionless and less dependent on the oracle. For instance:
    namadac sign-refund --execute-after-height <future block for refund>

Overall, I like the idea of introducing smart-contract-like functionality without actually using smart contracts, but it would be great to add more privacy on the oracle side. Maybe someone here will come up with a solution!

2 Likes
4

can Namada offer shielded multisigs? @cwgoes @tomas

@RuslanGlaznyov imo, big part of what makes this sort of thing interesting is when it’s combined with a social signal (in which case it needs to be public, so it’s okay if the oracle knows)

a public bet between known people is a signal of conviction

but i hadn’t thought of the OTC potential! which would be important if you don’t want to price signal to the broader market, but i imagine it’s enough to just break linkability by using a fresh tnam for the bet contract

there probably are other reasons to explore how the shielded pool could be used tho, and it is Namada’s core value proposition. it may be good to begin by seeing if this is a thing people will use in its simplest form

1 Like
5

@CryptoDruide i like the discord bot idea! what if we substituted on-chain stuff with trust assumptions initially? if there’s traction with small bets, develop the on-chain elements and lean into growth

i’m interested in

  • technical design
  • game / use-case design

i can’t commit much time (can work in short bursts)

6

Yes, but only cryptographically, which means you need to use FROST. Actually, this is a great candidate for a microgrant to build some tooling – what kind of tooling would you want to see for shielded multisigs?

1 Like
7

haven’t given it much thought, but

  • key setup & management
  • maybe some kind of signing session coordination
  • maybe some SDK support

@cwgoes would we need to build transactions differently for FROST?

thoughts, @RuslanGlaznyov?

perhaps @stellarmagnet has some ideas here

8

I agree that prioritizing getting a shielded multisig wallet built is important! I could probably go on and on as far as feature ideas, but more of a nice to have after the basic foundations are there, is something Hats protocol-inspired, where there may be nested wallets – this way you can use Namada for an organization that has one main multisig wallet, that is distributing funds/grants to smaller teams/pods. So bringing in some more visibility into some kind of “pod” management would be nice.

9

Hi.

I’d love to propose a broader vision for Namada - one that enhances privacy, unlocks new use cases, and helps NAM circulate across more networks and users.

If Namada is about private-by-default coordination, let’s push the envelope even further.

:shield: Enhanced Privacy & Network Control

To deepen Namada’s privacy features and give users more control, I suggest:

:white_check_mark: Ultra-private transactions: Additional optional shielding or encryption layers.

:shuffle_tracks_button: Coin Mixing: Allow opt-in transparent-to-transparent mixing (like a built-in tumbler) to obscure TX history.

:globe_with_meridians: Network privacy routing:

Let users choose to route transactions via Tor or I2P

Or use clearnet - configurable per wallet or transaction

:right_arrow: These options could make Namada one of the most privacy-friendly chains available, while still offering UX flexibility.

:counterclockwise_arrows_button: Utility Growth via Multichain Swaps & Markets

To drive adoption and real-world value:

Connect NAM to other chains via IBC, bridges, or wrapped tokens

Support integration with:

Major DEXs & CEXs (Osmosis, Uniswap, etc.)

Alternative markets: niche DEXs, P2P escrow tools, experimental barter protocols

Anonymous or unlisted indie ecosystems

:white_check_mark: This means even small or unrecognized projects (e.g. indie devs, games, micro-economies) can adopt NAM via cross-chain swaps or private P2P deals.

:locked_with_key: P2P Swaps with Multisig (No Smart Contract Needed)

Inspired by DLC-style setups (as in the original post), users could:

Agree on a price/terms

Lock funds into a 2-of-3 multisig (Alice, Bob, and Oracle)

Pre-sign conditional outcomes

Oracle signs only the winning TX - the rest are invalid

:locked: Works across chains. Works privately. Works without full trust.

This approach could support:

Prediction markets

P2P buying/selling

OTC-like trading between friends or unknowns

Even coordination between different chains with simple oracles

:test_tube: Sketch: CLI Example for Shielded Swap:

namada-swap
–from namada
–to ethereum
–amount 100
–token NAM
–recipient 0xYourETHAddress
–via uniswap
–privacy high
–network tor

Or could be wrapped inside a UI (wallet extension, Discord bot, etc.) for simple onboarding.

:light_bulb: Summary

Combine shielded prediction markets with deeper privacy tooling

Give users network-level privacy controls (Tor, I2P, clearnet)

Enable NAM to trade freely, even in nontraditional ecosystems

Support P2P shielded swaps through multisig coordination.

10

Optionality and User-Controlled Features

To ensure full trust and usability, every advanced feature proposed here (shielded transactions, multisig, coin mixing, Tor/I2P routing, cross-chain swaps, etc.) should follow these principles:

:white_check_mark: Opt-in only: All privacy or smart features should be off by default and enabled only by the user.

:compass: Manually Initiated: Users must explicitly activate or configure them - no hidden behavior.

:cross_mark: Disable or Remove Anytime: Any enabled option can be reversed or disabled without penalty.

:receipt: :ok_hand: Clear UI/UX Descriptions: Every privacy or control feature should be explained transparently - what it does, when it acts, and how it impacts your funds or metadata.

This ensures:

No one can lock, restrict, or access your funds without your direct participation.

Zero forced custody multisig wallets or escrow logic only activate when all signers agree up front.

Tor/I2P/clearnet routing happens based on your own selection (global or per-transaction).

The wallet remains transparent, safe, and in the user’s hands, not governed by smart contracts you didn’t approve.